The market remains firm and is now closer to the highs on basically little real support. More and more information continues to emerge that under normal circumstances would have been a negative for the market. Yesterday the EI released its summer gasoline outlook which indicated supplies are amble and demand is likely to be 36,000 bpd lower this summer than last year or a demand contraction for the first time in 17 years. With gasoline inventories also at record levels it is very surprising that gasoline prices are trading near all time highs.
Today we get another snapshot of oil stocks. The market is expecting an increase of 2.4 million barrels of crude oil or the 12 gain in 13 weeks for crude oil. Gasoline stocks are expected to decline 2.2 million barrels but even with this decline the gasoline stockpile will still be above normal. Distillate s are expected to decline about 1 million barrels.
The market will also be looking at refinery runs which have been running below normal for this time of the year due to poor refinery economics. Lower than normal refinery runs could ultimately result in an accelerated reduction in oil product inventories and thus will be interpreted as bullish if they remain at below normal levels. Runs are expected to increase 0.1%.
Currently prices are mostly lower.
| Current Expected Trading Range | | | ||
| | 4/9/08 | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | | From | Resistance | Support |
| | 7:19 AM | Yesterday | | |
| May WTI | $108.12 | ($0.38) | $112.50 | $99.20 |
| May HO | $3.1042 | ($0.0060) | $3.2500 | $2.7100 |
| May RBOB | $2.7479 | ($0.0025) | $2.9000 | $2.5200 |
| May NG | $9.805 | $0.108 | $10.250 | $8.700 |
| | | | | |
| Euro/$ | 1.5666 | (0.0007) | 1.5818 | 1.5200 |
| Yen/$ | 0.9769 | (0.0022) | 1.0450 | 0.9900 |
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