The inventories were just released. They showed a larger than expected build in crude oil and a larger than expected increase in refinery runs. On the other hand they showed larger than expected declines in refined products. The report is neutral at best with a bias toward slightly bearish as refinery runs were increased significantly and we still saw a big build in crude oil. Also the increase in runs will quickly start to translate to the production of more refined products and thus a likely end to the weekly declines on both gasoline and distillate.
With gasoline still over 18 million barrels above last year an increase in refinery runs is bearish at this point in time.
| Oil Inventory | | 4/23/08 | | |
| Mil of Bbls | | | | |
| | Current | Change from | Change from | Change from |
| | Inv. | Last Week | Last Year | 5 Year |
| | | | | |
| Crude Oil | 316.1 | 2.4 | (18.4) | 0.1 |
| Gasoline | 212.6 | (3.2) | 18.4 | 11.3 |
| Distillate | 104.7 | (1.4) | (12.6) | (2.8) |
| Refinery % | 85.6% | 4.2% | -2.2% | -2.2% |
For the moment the market is interpreting the report as slight bearish but we will have to wait and see if this sentiment hold. Over the last several months the inventories have been discounted within an hour or so of their release.
| Current Expected Trading Range | | | ||
| | 4/23/08 | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | | From | Resistance | Support |
| | 10:37 AM | Yesterday | | |
| June WTI | $117.20 | ($0.87) | $115.00 | $99.20 |
| May HO | $3.2977 | ($0.0192) | $3.4000 | $2.7100 |
| May RBOB | $3.0128 | ($0.0036) | $3.0000 | $2.5200 |
| May NG | $10.536 | ($0.071) | $10.750 | $8.700 |
| | | | | |
| Euro/$ | 1.5835 | (0.0129) | 1.6000 | 1.5200 |
| Yen/$ | 0.9690 | (0.0061) | 1.0450 | 0.9900 |
Dominick A. Chirichella
Energy Management Institute
tel 646-202-1433
tel 845.368.3904
fax 801.383.7510
www.advancedenergycommerce.com
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