Again not much in the market place especially to justify yesterday’s surge to the upside. Gasoline supply and the weak dollar were cited in many news media as the reason for yesterday’s move. Interestingly gasoline prices once again lagged the market while the US dollar actually firmed yesterday. The EIS indicated that they will be reporting in their summer gasoline report to be released today that they expect gasoline demand to be lower this summer by almost 100,000 bpd versus last year. With gasoline inventories still at historically high levels and over 20 million barrels above last year it is hard to understand why the market is so concerned over gasoline supply.
The market remains erratic with the market sentiment moving toward the bullish side of the equation once again. As I have said many times over the last month or so the market remains very over valued with a difficult trading and hedging pattern. We do not expect this pattern to change until the market becomes convinced that the market is actually well supplied.
Currently prices are mixed for oil with the dollar slightly weaker versus the Euro & the Yen.
| Current Expected Trading Range | | | ||
| | 4/8/08 | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | | From | Resistance | Support |
| | 6:32 AM | Yesterday | | |
| May WTI | $108.80 | ($0.29) | $112.50 | $99.20 |
| May HO | $3.0891 | $0.0048 | $3.2500 | $2.7100 |
| May RBOB | $2.7589 | ($0.0246) | $2.9000 | $2.5200 |
| May NG | $9.791 | $0.000 | $10.250 | $8.700 |
| | | | | |
| Euro/$ | 1.5713 | 0.0052 | 1.5818 | 1.5200 |
| Yen/$ | 0.9830 | 0.0031 | 1.0450 | 0.9900 |
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