A combination of the market viewing another decline in crude oil stocks in today’s EIA inventory report and news of a possible major attack on oil facilities in Nigeria was enough to send prices back into positive territory after two strong down days. However, the market ended the day well off of the lows as concern over a faltering US economy offset some of the bullishness previously mentioned.
Today the industry is expecting a mixed report…the 8th straight decline in crude oil stocks, the 9th straight build in gasoline and a modest draw in distillate. We view the results as neutral to slightly bearish due to the ongoing building of gasoline stocks and rising refinery runs. However, based on Tuesday’s market performance the industry is view the projections as neutral t slightly bullish. We will have to wait for the verdict at 10:30 am today.
| Projections | | 1/9/08 | |
| | | | |
| | Current | Change from | Change from |
| | Projections | Last Year | 5 Year |
| mmbls | | vs. Proj. | vs Proj. |
| Crude Oil | (0.8) | (25.9) | (5.2) |
| Gasoline | 1.7 | (3.8) | (1.0) |
| Distillate | (0.6) | (14.4) | (5.4) |
| Ref. Runs% | 0.2% | -1.9% | -1.8% |
| Change Level | 89.6% | 91.5% | 91.4% |
| | BCF | BCF | BCF |
| NG, BCF | (100) | (204) | 190 |
We expect the market will continue to trade in a wide range and barring any unforeseen news we still believe the market has a higher probability of further downside correction rather than a surge above $100/bbl.
Currently prices are firm in very early trading.
| Current Expected Trading Range | | | ||
| | 1/9/08 | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | | From | Resistance | Support |
| | 1:35 AM | Yesterday | | |
| Feb WTI | $96.69 | $0.36 | $100.00 | $90.00 |
| Feb HO | $2.6400 | $0.0037 | $2.7500 | $2.5000 |
| Feb RBOB | $2.4780 | $0.0041 | $2.6500 | $2.2000 |
| Feb NG | $8.027 | $0.060 | $8.000 | $7.000 |
| | | | | |
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