Latest As Of Tuesday Morning

A combination of a weak dollar and a spell of cold weather hitting he Northeast was enough to propel oil prices to positive territory for the first day in four trading sessions. Some tough words from President Bush about Iran also contributed to the current round of short covering. Monday proved to be a day of short covering with the weak shorts exiting the marketplace.

 

Participants are now ready for the next snapshot of fundamentals when the EIA releases its latest round of inventory numbers. So far the early expectations are calling for builds in everything in oil except for refinery runs which are expected to decline marginally. Even with the projected builds the year on year deficit is still pronounced while the variation versus the 5 year average for the same week is not so problematic. Versus the 5 year average gasoline is expected to show a surplus as does refinery utilization while distillate & crude oil will still show a modest deficit.

 

If the actuals come in as expected we believe the market will view the report as neutral to biased to the bearish side as a result of another week of builds.

 

Projections		1/15/08
	Current	Change from	Change from
	Projections	Last Year	5 Year
mmbls		vs. Proj.	vs. Proj.
Crude Oil	0.7	(37.9)	(10.7)
Gasoline	2.3	(1.4)	1.5
Distillate	1.2	(12.0)	(5.5)
Ref. Runs%	-0.1%	3.3%	1.8%
Change Level	91.2%	87.9%	89.4%
	BCF	BCF	BCF
NG, BCF	(65)	(251)	161

 

We expect the volatile pattern to continue and we still expect prices to resume their downward slide and test the long term support levels. Currently prices are slightly lower in quiet early overnight trading.

 

Current Expected Trading Range
	1/15/08	Change	Upper	Lower
		From	Resistance	Support
	2:46 AM	Yesterday
Feb WTI	$93.96	($0.24)	$100.00	$92.00
Feb HO	$2.5895	$0.0003	$2.7500	$2.5300
Feb RBOB	$2.3685	($0.0043)	$2.6500	$2.3000
Feb NG	$8.355	$0.002	$8.750	$8.000

 

 

 

 

Dominick A. Chirichella

Energy Management Institute

tel 646.202.1433

fax 801.383.7510

dchirichella@emimail.org

www.energyinstitution.org

www.advancedenergycommerce.com

 

This message and any attachments relate to the official business of the Energy Management Institute ("EMI") and are proprietary to EMI. This e-mail transmission may contain information that is proprietary, privileged and/or confidential and is intended exclusively for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any use, copying, retention or disclosure by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's designees is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or the taking of any action in reliance on this information is strictly prohibited. If this message has come to you in error, please immediately notify the sender by telephone or return e-mail and delete the original transmission and its attachments without reading or saving in any manner. Thank you.