As we predicted and expected the market put in another down week with prices in the energy complex falling across the board. The fundamental situation continues to improve while all of the other market drivers remain in the background. Crude oil was the main mover to the downside and the leader of the board. Gasoline was a close second with distillate/ho bring up the rear. On the refining side margins improves slightly and steadied on the week with HO supporting the complex.
HO was the most volatile commodity on the board as measured by the percentage change in the weekly range.
| | | | | | | |
| | | Trading For the Week | | | | |
| | | | | | | |
| | Current | Change | Change | 11-Jan | Weekly | Range % of |
| | Price | From Thurs | For Week | Settle | Range | Fri Close |
| | 2:12 AM | | | | | |
| Feb WTI | $90.13 | $0.00 | ($2.73) | $92.86 | $5.17 | 5.57% |
| Feb HO | $2.5050 | $0.0015 | ($0.0400) | $2.5450 | $0.1740 | 6.84% |
| Feb RBOB | $2.2733 | $0.0065 | ($0.0537) | $2.3270 | $0.1355 | 5.82% |
| Feb NG | $8.125 | $0.044 | ($0.050) | $8.175 | $0.548 | 6.70% |
| | | | | | | |
| Feb 08 Cracks | | | | | | |
| RBOB Crack | $5.349 | $0.27 | $0.48 | $4.870 | $0.74 | 15.20% |
| HO Crack | $15.080 | $0.06 | $1.05 | $14.030 | $1.19 | 8.48% |
| 321 Crack | $8.560 | $0.204 | $0.67 | $7.893 | $0.889 | 11.26% |
| | | | | | | |
We expect the pattern to continue especially if the equities market remain under pressure as we have experienced since the beginning of the year. Volatility should also remain above average throughout next week and beyond.
Currently prices are steady in very early overnight trading.
| Current Expected Trading Range | | | ||
| | 1/18/08 | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | | From | Resistance | Support |
| | 2:12 AM | Yesterday | | |
| Feb WTI | $90.13 | $0.00 | $100.00 | $90.00 |
| Feb HO | $2.5050 | $0.0015 | $2.7500 | $2.4500 |
| Feb RBOB | $2.2733 | $0.0065 | $2.6500 | $2.1800 |
| Feb NG | $8.125 | $0.044 | $8.750 | $8.000 |
| | | | | |
Dominick A. Chirichella
Energy Management Institute
tel 646.202.1433
fax 801.383.7510
dchirichella@emimail.org
www.energyinstitution.org
www.advancedenergycommerce.com
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