Overnight prices are slightly higher on a round of light short covering ahead of today’s oil inventories. As we have been discussing the market sentiment remains biased to the downside as it has been pretty much since the beginning of the year. We have been predicting that the energy complex will likely test the medium term support levels prior to making any recovery to the upside. For the moment the main oil drivers are biased to lower prices but defiantly not a major sell-off from current levels.
This morning the market is expecting significant builds in crude oil and gasoline and a modest decline in distillate and Nat gas. This will be the 5th week in a row that crude oil will have built after declining strongly at the end of the year for accounting and tax reasons. Although crude oil will still show a strong year on year deficit when compared to the 5 year average the shortfall is minimal. Gasoline seems to be on the exact same path as last year with the year on year deficit now just about gone and with the comparison to the 5 year average now showing a significant surplus. We are once again on a path to hitting record high post winter inventories of gasoline.
Distillate stocks are once again expected to fall after moderate winter type weather last week. The year on year deficit is still running in the low double digit levels, however, when compared to the 5 year average we are still modestly higher than normal. We see a similar pattern for NG.
| Oil Inventory Projections | February 6, 2008 | |
| Millions of Barrels | ||
| | Current | Change from |
| | Projections | Last Yr |
| | | If Actuals = Proj. |
| Crude Oil | 2.2 | (29.3) |
| Gasoline | 2.0 | (1.3) |
| Distillate | (1.7) | (11.0) |
| Ref. Runs% | -0.2% | -2.6% |
| Change Level | 84.8% | 87.3% |
| | BCF | BCF |
| NG | (170) | (205) |
Currently prices are firm
| Current Expected Trading Range | Feb 6,2008 | |||
| | Wednesday | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | as of | From Prev. | Res. | Support |
| | 8:02 AM | | | |
| Mar WTI | $88.91 | $0.50 | $92.50 | $85.25 |
| Mar Brent | $88.69 | ($0.13) | $95.50 | $86.50 |
| Feb HO | $2.4647 | $0.0182 | $2.5600 | $2.4000 |
| Feb Gasoil | $785.75 | $1.00 | $840.00 | $750.00 |
| Feb RBOB | $2.2717 | $0.0070 | $2.3600 | $2.2000 |
| Mar NG | $8.010 | $0.068 | $8.000 | $7.500 |
Salvatore Umek
Energy Management Institute
tel. 201.659.7410
cell. 201.697.5834
fax. 201.624.7164
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This message and any attachments relate to the official business of the Energy Management Institute ("EMI") and are proprietary to EMI. This e-mail transmission may contain information that is proprietary, privileged and/or confidential and is intended exclusively for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any use, copying, retention or disclosure by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's designees is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or the taking of any action in reliance on this information is strictly prohibited. If this message has come to you in error, please immediately notify the sender by telephone or return e-mail and delete the original transmission and its attachments without reading or saving in any manner. Thank you.
No comments:
Post a Comment