The oils are trading either side of unchanged in overnight trading on supply worries and geopolitics. Over the weekend Venezuela threatened to halt oil export to the U.S. after ExxonMobil was able freeze $12 billion of Venezuela’s oil assets. Chavez has made these types threats in the past, however since the U.S. is the biggest consumer of their oil he has always kept oil flowing despite the threats. Also helping price continue its move higher was a report of a bomb threat which shut one of Britain’s largest gas fields. This past Friday oil prices soared 4%, its biggest gain in two months on a combination of production problems in the North Sea and geopolitical concerns.
On the fundamental front last week’s oil inventories were bearish as inventories of crude and gasoline continue a strong building pattern. In fact gasoline stocks are now at the highest level for this time of the year since 1994. With refiners continuing to cut refinery runs the week was slightly favorable for the refiners as measured by the Nymex crack spreads. The distillate crack led the way higher with the gasoline crack just slightly higher on the week.
We expect this week will provide more of the same as nothing significant seems to be looming to support prices but the ongoing drivers pressuring prices remain in place…weakening fundamentals (growing inventories) and a weakening economy/equities markets.
Currently prices are trading either side of unchanged for the oils while NG is slightly higher.
| Current Expected Trading Range | Feb 11,2008 | |||
| | Monday | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | as of | From Prev. | Res. | Support |
| | 7:51 AM | | | |
| Mar WTI | $91.88 | $0.11 | $92.50 | $85.25 |
| Mar Brent | $91.78 | ($0.16) | $95.50 | $86.50 |
| Mar HO | $2.5623 | $0.0082 | $2.5600 | $2.4000 |
| Feb Gasoil | $826.25 | $8.50 | $840.00 | $750.00 |
| Mar RBOB | $2.3585 | $0.0013 | $2.3600 | $2.2000 |
| Mar NG | $8.490 | $0.189 | $8.000 | $7.500 |
Salvatore Umek
Energy Management Institute
tel. 201.659.7410
cell. 201.697.5834
fax. 201.624.7164
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________
CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE: This message and any attachments relate to the official business of the Energy Management Institute ("EMI") and are proprietary to EMI. This e-mail transmission may contain information that is proprietary, privileged and/or confidential and is intended exclusively for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any use, copying, retention or disclosure by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's designees is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or the taking of any action in reliance on this information is strictly prohibited. If this message has come to you in error, please immediately notify the sender by telephone or return e-mail and delete the original transmission and its attachments without reading or saving in any manner. Thank you.
No comments:
Post a Comment