The oil complex is form to start the post holiday period as the Turkey military continues to attack rebel strongholds in Northern Iraq. Although oil disruptions as a result of this activity is extremely low the market is still interpreting it as a potential problem area that could spread into Iraqi production. Again the likelihood is very low and the amount of oil that flows from Northern Iraq is small as most of the Iraqi oil flow from the Southern region. However, this situation is a reminder to the market that Geopolitical problems remain around the world and could cause problems at any time (even though most of the usual areas are quiet).
With little else to go on the market will be looking for oil stocks which will be released one day late (Thursday) due to the Christmas holiday. Early expectations are calling for a decline of about 1.5 million barrels of crude oil, a decline of about 700,000 bbls of distillate and an increase of about 1.5 million bbls of gasoline. Overall a neutral expectation. With a reduced number of participants in the market and little external news the market is likely to more quietly within the trading range it has been in for over three weeks.
Currently prices are firm for oil and weak for NG as warmer than normal weather engulfs most of the main heating fuels areas.
| Current Expected Trading Range | | | ||
| | 12/26/2007 | Change | Upper | Lower |
| | Electronic | From | Resistance | Support |
| | 7:58 AM | Yesterday | | |
| Feb WTI | $94.42 | $0.29 | $95.00 | $85.00 |
| Jan HO | $2.6105 | $0.0158 | $2.7500 | $2.5000 |
| Jan RBOB | $2.4014 | $0.0174 | $2.5000 | $2.2000 |
| Jan NG | $6.970 | ($0.055) | $7.660 | $6.640 |
| | | | | |
Dominick A. Chirichella
Energy Management Institute
tel 646.202.1433
fax 801.383.7510
dchirichella@emimail.org
www.energyinstitution.org
www.advancedenergycommerce.com
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