The reversals continue as the complex remains in the wide trading range. This morning prices are starting on a firm note after reports of a ground incursion by Turkey into Northern Iraq. There have been reports of activity since the weekend when Turkey launched an air attack on rebel strongholds in the north of Iraq. Although this activity has an extremely low probability of leading to a disruption in oil supplies it serves as a reminder to the market that Geopolitical situations are alive and well. For the moment it is scaring the shorts from the market.
Tomorrow the EIA will release its latest snapshot of oil stocks. Heading into the report stocks of crude oil & products are comfortably within the normal operating range. The current expectations are calling for small declines in crude oil (200,000 bbls) and distillate (500,000 bbls) and a build of about 1 million barrels of gasoline. Refinery runs are expected to increase by 0.3% to 89.1% of capacity. If the actuals come in as expected the market will view the report as mostly neutral.
On the winter weather front the latest forecast (NOAA) is calling for above normal temperatures in place over the next few days and lasting for the rest of the year over the vast majority of the US that consumes heating fuels. Not a very supportive weather forecast for another surge to the upside in the short term. So unless tomorrow’s inventories are bullish the market is likely to remain in the $85 to $95/bbl trading range that has been in place for the last 15 or so trading days.
Currently prices are firm across the board.
Current Expected Trading Range | ||||
12/18/2007 | Change | Upper | Lower | |
Electronic | From | Resistance | Support | |
7:36 AM | Yesterday | |||
Jan WTI | $91.62 | $0.99 | $95.00 | $85.00 |
Jan HO | $2.6150 | $0.0171 | $2.7500 | $2.5000 |
Jan RBOB | $2.3559 | $0.0205 | $2.5000 | $2.2000 |
Jan NG | $7.049 | $0.014 | $7.660 | $6.640 |
Dominick A. Chirichella
Energy Management Institute
tel 646.202.1433
fax 801.383.7510
dchirichella@emimail.org
www.energyinstitution.org
www.advancedenergycommerce.com
This message and any attachments relate to the official business of the Energy Management Institute ("EMI") and are proprietary to EMI. This e-mail transmission may contain information that is proprietary, privileged and/or confidential and is intended exclusively for the person(s) to whom it is addressed. Any use, copying, retention or disclosure by any person other than the intended recipient or the intended recipient's designees is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any disclosure, copying, distribution or the taking of any action in reliance on this information is strictly prohibited. If this message has come to you in error, please immediately notify the sender by telephone or return e-mail and delete the original transmission and its attachments without reading or saving in any manner. Thank you.
No comments:
Post a Comment